Swine Flu - Has it peaked?

The swine flu pandemic appears to have peaked for the moment but the virus will return with "a very big surge" in the autumn, the UK's chief medical officer said today.

Sir Liam Donaldson hailed new data as proof of a "pretty firm downturn" in the number of people seeking medical help with H1N1 from a GP. "There's a possibility the virus has had its fill of us for the moment," he said.

The number of people consulting a doctor with flu-like symptoms has fallen from 155.3 for every 100,000 people to 138.2 for every 100,000. He said. "It's peaked in America, it's peaked in Mexico, it's peaked in Scotland, so why shouldn't it peak here?" About one in every 158 people in England has had flu in the current outbreak and 27 have died.

School holidays and people being away on summer breaks helped explain the apparent decline, said Donaldson, adding: "We don't anticipate it staying down for too long, because we have our own flu season coming up."